该书由英国著名生物模型专家J.M.斯密斯所著，是一本绝对值得一读的生物模型专著教材。

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版 《生物 稳态与环境 》第 4章第 2节 “种群数量的变化 ”中 “建构种群数量增长的模型 ”为例加以阐述 。1. 1模型准备 ———研究对象 , 提出问题在

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A brief introduction to the formulation of various types of stochastic epidemic models is presented based on the well-known deterministic SIS and SIR epidemic models. Three different types of stochastic model formulations are discussed: discrete time Markov chain, continuous time Markov chain and stochastic differential equations. Properties unique to the stochastic models are presented: probability of disease extinction, probability of disease outbreak, quasistationary probability distribution, final size distribution, and expected duration of an epidemic. The chapter ends with a discussion of two stochastic formulations that cannot be directly related to the SIS and SIR epidemic models. They are discrete time Markov chain formulations applied in the study of epidemics within households (chain binomial models) and in the prediction of the initial spread of an epidemic (branching processes).