据报道，公司在股票市场上的股票价格与公司交易所在国家的宏观经济变量 (MV) 密切相关。 出于这个原因，研究人员、市场交易员、金融分析师和预测人员为了检查 MV 与股票价格之间的关联进行了大量研究，使用时间序列统计分析方法，如自回归综合移动平均 (ARIMA)、自回归移动平均 (ARMA) ) 和广义自回归条件异方差性 (GARCH)。 然而，据报道这些技术受到有限的预测能力和限制性假设的影响。 此外，为了寻求弥补这些技术的不足和局限性的方法，一些研究人员研究了无数的机器学习技术，用于衡量股市趋势并使用宏观经济变量做出交易决策。 另一方面，这些研究中有较高比例关注股票指数预测，而忽略了影响不同行业指数的 MV 的多样性。 在解决上述问题时，本研究试图检验不同部门股票价格和 MV 之间的显着性程度，并使用随机森林 (RF) 和改进的留一法交叉验证预测 30 天的头部股票价格战术和长短期记忆循环神经网络 (LSTMRNN)。 与其他时间序列技术相比，对加纳证券交易所 (GSE) 所提出模型的实证分析显示出较高的预测精度和更好的平均绝对误差。 因此，可以从后果中推断出，所提出的 MV 股票市场预测提供了一种有效的方法来自动识别和提取影响不同部门股票的 MV，并提供对股票未来价格的准确预测。

这是由美联储经济数据库（FRED）托管的圣路易斯联邦储备银行的数据集。FRED有一个数据平台，它们根据数据更新的频率来更新其信息。 5-year-breakeven-inflation-rate_metadata.json 10-year-breakeven-inflation-rate_metadata.json 10-year-breakeven-inflation-rate_metadata_1.json 20-year-breakeven-inflation-rate_metadata.json 30-year-breakeven-inflation-rate_metadata.json T5YIE.csv T10YIE.csv T10YIEM.csv T20YIEM.csv T30YIEM.csv

Monetary Policy,Inflation and the business cycle（2015版）PDF

The 2nd edition of this successful book has several new features. The calibration discussion of the basic LIBOR market model has been enriched considerably, with an analysis of the impact of the swaptions interpolation technique and of the exogenous instantaneous correlation on the calibration outputs. A discussion of historical estimation of the instantaneous correlation matrix and of rank reduction has been added, and a LIBOR-model consistent swaption-volatility interpolation technique has been introduced. The old sections devoted to the smile issue in the LIBOR market model have been enlarged into a new chapter. New sections on local-volatility dynamics, and on stochastic volatility models have been added, with a thorough treatment of the recently developed uncertain-volatility approach. Examples of calibrations to real market data are now considered. The fast-growing interest for hybrid products has led to a new chapter. A special focus here is devoted to the pricing of inflation-linked derivatives. The three final new chapters of this second edition are devoted to credit. Since Credit Derivatives are increasingly fundamental, and since in the reduced-form modeling framework much of the technique involved is analogous to interest-rate modeling, Credit Derivatives -- mostly Credit Default Swaps (CDS), CDS Options and Constant Maturity CDS - are discussed, building on the basic short rate-models and market models introduced earlier for the default-free market. Counterparty risk in interest rate payoff valuation is also considered, motivated by the recent Basel II framework developments.