Applied Bayesian Modeling

贝叶斯应用方面教程。 Bayesian analysis of data in the health，social and physical sciences has been greatly facilitated in the last decade by advances in computing power and improved scope for estimation via iterative sampling methods. Yet the Bayesian perspective，which stresses the accumulation ofknowledge about parameters in a synthesis of prior knowledge with the data at hand，has a longer history. Bayesian methods in econometrics，including applications to linear regression，serial correlation in time series，and simultaneous equations，have been developed since the 1960s with the seminal work of Box and Tiao (1973) and Zellner (1971). Early Bayesian applications in physics are exemplified by the work of Jaynes (e.g. Jaynes，1976) and are discussed，along with recent applications， by D?Agostini (1999). Rao (1975) in the context of smoothing exchangeable parameters and Berry (1980) in relation to clinical trials exemplify Bayes reasoning in biostatistics and biometrics， and it is here that many recent advances have occurred.