winbugs14-好用的计量经济学软件
BUGS是Bayesian inference using gibbs sampling的缩写）和WinBUGS。BUGS软件最初于1989年由位于英国剑桥的生物统计学研究所（Biostatistics the Medical Research Council, Cambridge, United Kingdom）研制的，现在由这个研究所和位于伦敦的S.t Mary's皇家学院医学分院（the Imperial College School of Medicine）共同开发。BUGS的运行以MCMC方法为基础，它将所有未知参数都看做随机变量，然后对此种类型的概率模型进行求解。它所使用的编程语言非常容易理解，允许使用者直接对研究的概率模型作出说明。软件中的MCMC分析部分采用Fortran语言编写，相关的编程语言设计非常有效。BUGS主要的目的是解决对完全概率模型的MCMC分析，BUGS软件包适用于计算机的各种操作平台。
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